Betting Baseball Underdogs

Betting the Underdogs in Baseball
For most baseball bettors, the urge to bet the favorite is often too tempting to pass up. After all, the favorite is "supposed" to win, while the underdog is "supposed" to lose. The key for sports gamblers is to determine if the price on the favorite is a true estimation of the team's likelihood of winning the game. A favorite of -150 with a true probability of winning two out of three games is a good bet in the long run, while a favorite of -240 with a true probability of winning two out of three games, is not. For the most part, baseball bettors are far more likely to see the second scenario, as opposed to the first, as the oddsmakers know that the majority of baseball bettors are going to back the favorite, and they will adjust for that fact.


A seven year study of baseball results produced the following winning percentages and betting results:

Underdogs: 6917-9644 -153 units
Favorites: 9619-6891 -641 units


Even though the favorites won at a healthy 58.3-percentage clip, bettors who backed only the favorites would lose four times as much as a bettor who backed only underdogs.But since both scenarios will show a flat-rate loss, what we're looking for are certain situations that occur, where we can take advantage of the oddsmakers' tendency to inflate the line on the favorite, and look for value with the underdogs.